The Nigeria economic growth 2025 outlook has improved, with the World Bank forecasting a 3.6% increase. This follows an estimated 3.4% growth in 2024, driven by key macroeconomic reforms.
The Africa Pulse report (Spring 2025) links the rebound to strong performance in financial services, ICT, and telecom. A gradual rise in oil production, aligned with OPEC+ quotas, also supports recovery.
The World Bank expects growth to rise to 3.8% by 2027, provided reforms continue. “Economic growth is expected to remain moderate,” the report notes, highlighting services and transportation as key drivers.
Meanwhile, the IMF offers a more cautious outlook. It projects 3.0% growth in 2025 and a further drop to 2.7% by 2026, citing weak oil revenue and structural bottlenecks.
Inflation remains a concern. The World Bank predicts it will ease to 22.1% in 2025, down from 26.6% in 2024. It expects further decline to 15.9% by 2027, helped by a rebased Consumer Price Index. The rebasing, completed in January, shifted the CPI base year from 2009 to 2024 to reflect current consumption trends.
Following the rebasing, inflation dropped from 34.8% in December 2024 to 24.23% by March 2025, easing cost-of-living pressures. However, the IMF disagrees, forecasting 26.5% inflation in 2025 and 37% in 2026. It blames supply constraints, volatile exchange rates, and lingering inefficiencies.
On currency, the World Bank ranked the naira among Africa’s worst-performing currencies in 2024, after it lost over 40% of its value. This followed Nigeria’s shift to a market-driven FX regime. Yet, early 2025 brought better FX liquidity and relative naira stability.
The current account surplus also shows promise. The World Bank projects it will edge up from 9.2% in 2024 to 9.4% by 2026, helped by stronger remittances and reduced imports. The IMF is less optimistic, estimating 6.9% in 2025 and 5.2% in 2026, warning that low oil prices could hurt this balance.
Fitch Ratings forecasts a moderate average surplus of 3.3% over 2025–2026, while JP Morgan remains mixed on Nigeria’s external outlook.
Despite economic gains, poverty levels in Nigeria remain alarming. The World Bank reports that 106 million Nigerians—15% of the global total—live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2.15 per day.
Nigeria leads sub-Saharan Africa in extreme poverty, with 19% of the region’s poor population. It surpasses countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (14%), Ethiopia (9%), and Sudan (6%).
The World Bank warns that without urgent reforms, poverty in resource-rich countries like Nigeria will worsen. It forecasts a 3.6 percentage point rise in Nigeria’s poverty rate by 2027, despite growth in finance and telecom.
Other African countries are reducing poverty faster. Nigeria continues to lag due to weak public services, high population growth, and limited reform delivery.
PwC estimates that another 13 million Nigerians may fall into poverty in 2025 alone. Government social programmes have struggled due to slow rollout and corruption.
The IMF’s April review noted that recent fiscal reforms—such as ending fuel subsidies and tightening monetary policy—have yet to benefit most Nigerians. Poverty and food insecurity remain widespread.
The Fund urged Nigeria to reinvest savings from subsidy removal into public services and cash transfers. It stressed faster delivery under the World Bank-supported protection programme.
Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, added that falling oil prices are putting pressure on oil exporters like Nigeria. She warned that slowing global growth could worsen the situation further.
As Nigeria enters 2025 with cautious optimism, it must balance economic reform with social protection. Growth alone cannot lift millions out of poverty without decisive, people-focused action.
